over 3 years ago

The KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER predicts that public debt at the end of fiscal year 2021 will be approximately 58.7-59.6% of GDP under assumptions สมัครสล็อต that include the Criminal Code. Borrowed 7 hundred million baht. It is expected that approximately half of the total loan amount is actually borrowed at the end of fiscal year 2021. While the public debt level at the end of this fiscal year has not yet reached 60% of GDP, the additional borrowing has accelerated the public debt level closer to the 60% GDP ceiling than previously estimated. This will result in the government sector having to prepare to expand the public debt ceiling in the near future.

According to the cabinet resolution (Cabinet) approved, the Royal Decree borrows an additional 7 billion baht, which will provide greater flexibility for the government to take care of the economy affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. The new wave of loan utilization would depend on the situation of the epidemic and the economic situation in the future. On the other hand, if there is no such loan Act, but the epidemic has not subsided. The government will lack fiscal tools to help and heal those affected.

“The additional borrowing has brought Thailand's public debt level closer to 60% of GDP, and the government needs to expand the public debt ceiling in the near future. 2021 is 54.3% of GDP, ”the research center said.

In this regard, expanding the public debt ceiling is still within the vision that can be achieved. While the public debt ceiling of 60% of GDP is the level of the fiscal sustainability framework popular in many countries such as the European Union, the appropriate public debt level for each country is not fixed. And depending on the context and various factors Different

The focus is on investors' responses to government borrowers. Government communications and the subsequent fiscal discipline plan are important. If investors are of the view that this additional borrowing is necessary in the current situation. And it is not an issue about fiscal discipline. An additional 70 billion borrowers may not be a concern of investor confidence. But if investors have questions about fiscal discipline issues that may affect fiscal risk and long-term fiscal sustainability, this is the case. Additional borrowing could have an impact on investor confidence. This will affect the higher government bond yields. In addition to the market forces on the higher supply side

However, government bond yields are not solely dependent on domestic factors. If, however, it depends on external factors as well. The Thai government bond yields have a very positive correlation with the US government bond yields. Soaring Will result in higher Thai government bond yields as well. This will result in higher borrowing costs. Although the Thai economy is still not recovering well.

For the impact on economic expansion Although usually Government borrowers and additional expenditures Should play a role in stimulating economic growth But the epidemic of COVID-19 In progress Causing the income and spending of consumers to be different from the normal range In the end The stimulus effect on the economy of government borrowers and additional expenditures. It depends on the severity of the epidemic. Causing us to continue to monitor the COVID-19 situation For a while So you can summarize the results of The Royal Decree borrows seven hundred billion per the figure of the economic growth rate.

Initially, the Kasikorn Research Center Maintain GDP growth forecast in 2021 at 1.8% while monitoring epidemic situations and economic indicators. To be used in the future estimates.